Registered: Nov 2009
Location: Merrimack Valley
Posts: 40

Mike,

The site must be using a really simplistic Win/Loss mathematical algorithm. It doesn't factor in ties, and that is the sole reason that MC can't finish 4th according to their model.

Further confirmation of this is shown on HockeyEastOnline's Playoff PDF, and it shows that we could finish anywhere from 4th to 9th.

http://www.hockeyeastonline.com/men...03/pp030110.pdf

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http://www.playoffstatus.com/hockey...kstandings.html

According to this, MC can't finish 4th, but we know that's not correct, they can. I believe the reason it shows them as not being able to finish 4th is due to this: "X means the team cannot win this spot - ties of future unplayed games are not considered"

So they must not be considering the possibility that Vermont and Lowell among others could end at least one of their games in a tie.

Something to be aware of when looking at that site. It did look pretty neat, but now I have to question it knowing that it is wrong about this.

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Registered: Aug 2008
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Well this past Saturday night loss to Maine was disappointing given the solid game the Warriors played on Friday but Maine came back with the intention to win.

I predict that all series this weekend will split. I believe this would result in the following final standings:
1. New Hampshire - (pre season prediction was 4th)
2. BC - (3rd)
3. Maine - (8th)
4. UMass Lowell - (2nd)
5. Vermont - (5th)
6. Northeastern - (6th)
7. BU - (1st)
8. Merrimack - (10th)
9. Massachusetts - (7th)
10. Providence - (9th)

Which puts the Warriors up against New Hampshire in the first round.

Last edited by Icewolf on 03-01-2010 at 07:07 PM

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Despite being hammered with penalties tonight, the Warriors came away with a solid victory. Congratulations on rising to seventh spot. Now, keep it going and beat this Maine team again tomorrow. This weekend is pivotal for many teams. Very exciting for Hockey East fans.

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quote:

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Originally posted by Icewolf
If a 500 record gets you to 5th place, then the Warriors would need to win 5 of their last 7 games. This is quite a tall order with UMass, BC, and Maine in the mix. UMass is at 500 right now with their last three games being losses. They will be tough to beat, the Warriors need to bring their best game every night. I predict a split but of course would celebrate anything better. Vermont travels to New Hampshire for two games so this is definately the weekend to leap frog past them. Let's play some hockey!

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Registered: Nov 2009
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Agreed Chief, at first blush this sounded a lot like an off-the-ice issue, but questioning the kid's effort is an interesting folly to start with.

If you read into "Milo's Blog" he never hints at any problems with the team... http://www.uvm.edu/~sportspr/mens_h...=milo_blog.html

Either way, UVM is now missing two of it's top scorers this weekend against UNH at the Whitt (Milo and Stacey) and maybe more.

The Catamounts (13-10-5; 7-9-5 Hockey East) will begin a critical series at league-leading New Hampshire this weekend with a depleted roster. In addition to the players who are no longer with the program, junior forwards Wahsontiio Stacey and Jay Anctil are injured and expected to miss the trip. Senior defenseman Patrick Cullity was also hurt and his status is uncertain while backup goalie Mike Spillane is also out indefinitely with an injury.

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This Justin Milo dismissal in Vermont is getting weird.

http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/...off-Cats-roster

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quote:

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Originally posted by hockeyinthesun
Statistically this weekend was great. When I thought they had an outside possibility of getting to 27 points, I was thinking of at best 2 points at Vermont. I figure mcsportsguy is not a statistician or math guy to figure it will take possibly 25 points to make the playoffs, the plain facts are a 500 record which is 27 points has to guaranty at worst 5th place. If tey can take three points from Maine this weekend watch out.

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Statistically this weekend was great. When I thought they had an outside possibility of getting to 27 points, I was thinking of at best 2 points at Vermont. I figure mcsportsguy is not a statistician or math guy to figure it will take possibly 25 points to make the playoffs, the plain facts are a 500 record which is 27 points has to guaranty at worst 5th place. If tey can take three points from Maine this weekend watch out.

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quote:

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Originally posted by WarriorDJ
Series 5: up 2-1-1 (not sure if you count ties as a win or a loss)

02/05/10 vs. NORTHEASTERN L
02/06/10 vs. UMASS LOWELL W
02/12/10 at Vermont T OT
02/13/10 at Vermont W

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Best of 7

Series 1: W 4-2

10/09/09 at North Dakota L
10/10/09 at North Dakota L
10/16/09 vs. HOLY CROSS W
10/17/09 vs. ARMY W
10/23/09 vs. VERMONT W
10/25/09 vs. CONNECTICUT W

Series 2: L 2-4

10/30/09 at Boston College L
11/01/09 vs. BOSTON COLLEGE W
11/13/09 vs. BOSTON UNIVERSITY W
11/14/09 at Boston University L
11/21/09 at UMass Lowell L
11/28/09 vs. NEW HAMPSHIRE L

Series 3: L 1-4

12/04/09 vs. NORTHEASTERN W
12/05/09 at Northeastern L
12/12/09 at Massachusetts L
01/02/10 at Wisconsin L
01/03/10 vs. Ferris State L

Series 4: L 2-4

01/09/10 at Maine L
01/16/10 at Boston University L
01/22/10 at UMass Lowell L
01/23/10 vs. PROVIDENCE W
01/29/10 vs. NEW HAMPSHIRE W
01/30/10 at New Hampshire L

Series 5: up 2-1-1 (not sure if you count ties as a win or a loss)

02/05/10 vs. NORTHEASTERN L
02/06/10 vs. UMASS LOWELL W
02/12/10 at Vermont T OT
02/13/10 at Vermont W

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quote:

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Originally posted by MikeM
They are 4-2-1 in the last 7.

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Often a program goes through stages in its development to the next level. A lot of losses, then a lot of close games but close losses, then starting to find ways to win those games, etc.

They are 4-2-1 in the last 7.

Three of the four wins by one goal (PC, UNH, @ Vermont). All four wins (incl. Lowell) were games that were tied in the third. In one of them they trailed and came back to tie (Sat. night). In the tie, they came back to tie.

Even one of the two losses (@ UNH), they had to come back from down two late in the second and down one in the third just to tie, and lost it with only :11 left in OT.

I don't expect they're going to win every game from now on that's like this, but if they win more of them than they lose, that's what you want.

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Mike's story on the E-T

http://www.eagletribune.com/pusport...eyword=topstory

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quote:

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Originally posted by ChiefWahoo
Great win tonight. Great weekend. Period. Please take the negativity elsewhere.

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